NGX Market Weekly Summary (Week Ending October 10, 2025)

This week, the Nigerian equities market extended its bullish run, with the ASI (All Share Index) closing at 146,988.04, marking a +1.50% gain for the week and accelerating from last week’s +0.85%. Year-to-date (YTD), the ASI is firmly in the green—up +42.46%, reflecting broad optimism and persistent risk-on sentiment across major blue chips and growth stocks. However, some caution is warranted as turnover and trading volume both dipped sharply, suggesting profit-taking and a touch of consolidation beneath the surface. Market breadth remains favorable but moderating—advancers still outpaced decliners (1.24x), yet turnover decreased -15.11% and volume slipped -33.97% week-on-week. Notably, institutional players drove the value traded, comprising 86.52% of weekly trade value, emphasizing a divergence between institutional confidence and retail caution.

Market Breadth & Participation Trends

• Market Breadth Ratio: 1.24x (56 advancers, 45 decliners). Advancers: 31.28%, Decliners: 25.14%, 43.58% unchanged—a positive tilt.
• More stocks recorded higher trade volume (138) than those with lower (139); a very mild negative breadth suggesting fatigue at highs and a cautious tone into new highs.
• Eight new highs were set with zero new lows—bullish, but note decelerating new high momentum.
• Institutional investors dominated trade value (86.52%), but only 38.01% of trade count, reflecting larger-value, lower-frequency block trades.
• Retail investors drove trade count (61.99%), but just 13.48% of value, underscoring a familiar retail-institutional split.

Top Gainers and Losers - Highlights

• EUNISELL: The week's top gainer, with +11.39% and an RSI of 80.17 (overbought)—momentum investors should watch for mean reversion risk in the short term, as RSI above 70 can suggest excessive optimism.
• DEAPCAP: Decent move, but with lower-than-average volume and a still-neutral RSI—may have more room to run if broader sentiment improves.
• DANGCEM: Strong institutional volume (top traded by value: NGN 1.10 bln by institutional investors), dual presence in WTD gainers and top institutional trades—big conviction from both active managers and momentum funds.
• LIVINGTRUST plummeted -21.21%—the sharpest weekly drop, with a mid-level RSI, warrants watch as it may form a short-term bottom but currently lacks bullish rescue signals.
• STERLINGNG appears both among top losers and top 5 most traded by retail—likely capitulation by retail participants, which can set up snapback rallies if institutional support appears.

Insider Insights & Momentum Extremes

• Bullish momentum (RSI > 70, positive MACD, 15DMA > 50DMA):
  • EUNISELL: RSI 80.17; MACD and 15DMA above 50DMA: Sharp momentum, also extended!
  • MECURE: RSI 72.85, MACD positive, 15DMA above 50DMA: Strong continuation; be alert for overbought pullback.
  • SOVRENINS: RSI 54.90, but 15DMA > 50DMA and persistent positive momentum.
• Bearish candidates:
  • LIVINGTRUST: Major loss, neutral RSI (51)—not oversold yet, but business momentum negative.
  • MERVALUE ETF, MERGROWTH ETF: Declines with RSIs in the 40s (not yet technically oversold). ETF outflows may weigh further if trend persists.
  • No stocks listed with RSI < 30, indicating absence of genuine "panic" selling; all bearish moves so far appear controlled, not forced sell-offs.
• Dividend Yields (watchlist): High dividend stocks (e.g., CUTIX with 6.5%+ yield; PZ with 4.59%) are not currently among the strongest gainers, nor marked with bullish momentum, suggesting market focus is more on growth/momentum than yield this week. If defensive rotation picks up, expect attention to shift.

Indexes Performance Table

• Standout Sector: The NGX Premium Index was the runaway winner, up +5.03% WTD and +51.16% YTD, versus broad market’s +1.5% WTD and +42.46% YTD—driven by gains in heavyweights like DANGCEM.
• NGX Industrial and NGX Lotus Islamic also outperformed; Lotus up a striking +77.32% YTD, reflecting the strong appetite for compliant growth stocks.
• Laggards: Banking and Oil/Gas underperformed for the week (-1.04% and -0.43% WTD, respectively) and, notably, Oil & Gas lags on a YTD basis (-1.88%). The broad-based selloff in the ASeM Index (-9.44% WTD, -12.05% YTD) signals ongoing risk aversion to micro-cap or less liquid strategies.
• Currency: The Naira firmed +0.89% WTD, offering modest currency support for equity pricing.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

Gainers-Losers Overlap Insights:

• EUNISELL, MTNN, MECURE, SOVRENINS continue to dominate both YTD and WTD gainers, implying persistent momentum and trend-reinforcing institutional interest—watch for further breakouts, but also increased mean reversion risk, especially given overbought RSI signals.
• MERVALUE, LIVINGTRUST, MERGROWTH appear as both WTD and YTD laggards. ETF selling and micro-cap underperformance continue to weigh.
• Livingtrust: Recent plunge erased most YTD gains—a caution flag for retail traders following trends late.

Trade Activity Analysis & Patterns

• Institutions: Fewer trades, but far higher volume and especially higher value—indicative of block buying/selling, especially in high-cap names (notably DANGCEM).
• Retail: Much more fragmented activity—many trades for small value/tickets, especially around volatile names like STERLINGNG.

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks (Institutional Investors)

• Heavy institutional flow into DANGCEM, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP: these names are not among WTD losers, and DANGCEM is both a top gainer and big institutionally favored name—continue to watch these for trend leadership and liquidity-driven moves.
• ARADEL: Not top gainer, but extremely high institutional focus—could be building toward a breakout or mean reversion soon.

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks (Retail Investors)

• Retail traders gravitate towards high-beta, high-volume and mid-sized stocks (STERLINGNG, ACCESSCORP), with some tilting to blue chips (ZENITHBANK, MTNN), especially those showing volatility or headline moves.
• STERLINGNG: Both major loser and heavy retail focus—likely recent retail capitulation, with potential for rebound if sell-off exhausts.
• ZENITHBANK, MTNN: Attracting both retail and institutional action—confirming their status as deep liquidity pools/bellwethers.

Strategic Insights & Opportunities

• Momentum Watch: Overbought names like EUNISELL (RSI 80.17) and MECURE (RSI 72.85) offer short-term traders both continuation and mean-reversion setups. Consider trailing stops or partial profit-taking strategies.
• Liquid Leaders: DANGCEM and MTNN reflect top institutional and retail interest with bullish momentum—look for sustained leadership.
• Turnover Dip: The sharp fall-off in turnover/volumes cautions against chasing strength blindly; possible short-term consolidation brewing.
• Bullish Sector Themes: Index outperformance points to a rerating in blue-chip, premium index names—especially those with growth and earnings delivery.
• Bear Watch: STERLINGNG, LIVINGTRUST, MERGROWTH—high volatility, risk-off signals. Avoid until clear reversal emerges unless trading quick oversold bounces.
• Yield Rotation Lulled: High dividend payers are not leading this week—should the market begin to rotate into defense, these could become havens.

Key Takeaways

• Broad bullishness persists, but momentum may be peaking in some segments; trailing stops and profit-booking are prudent in overbought names.
• Institutional flows are crowding into top names—DANGCEM, MTNN, and ZENITHBANK—watch these for next trend cues.
• Monitor outflows from laggard sector ETFs and recent high fliers for signs of trend exhaustion or sector rotation.
• Turnover retreat signals caution: watch if recent high performers can drive fresh highs or if market consolidates.
• Sectors with YTD underperformance (like oil & gas, micro-caps) remain in the penalty box for now.

Final word for traders: The market remains constructive but shows nascent signs of consolidation. Stick with trend leaders, but mind the risk of reversals in overextended stocks. Use institutional/retail flow data to identify conviction trades and don’t ignore abrupt volume/turnover changes as signals for near-term caution.